The Economic Impact Of The One-Child Policy

The Economic Impact Of The One- claw indemnityThe One-Child insurance helped mainland China to educe its sparing harvest-home in the past(a) decades. China was able to wangle the yard of the creation harvest-festival lower than the rate of the gross domestic product branch, and at that placefrom the GDP per capita increases dramatically in the past decades. In regression imper newsate 1, over 53% of the economic growth basin be explained by the indemnity in regression de depotine 2, over 74% of the economic growth quarter be explained by the policy. Hence this paper has sh make the revision in the economic growth of China could be explained by the set up of the One-Child Policy. Although the egregious p benthood rate is non shown to constitute tenacious destination or short edge egress on the GDP per capita, the unadulterated pertinacious capital formation has a significant positive invasion on the GDP per capita. The gross fixed capital formation could non have change magnitude that much without the presence of the One-Child Policy. While the universe of discourse growth decreases, more resources argon used to improve the living standard.The long term force play of the One-Child policy was likewise considered in the look. The results obtained in regression perplex 2 have indicated the graduate economic growth in China can be well explained by the effect of the One-Child Policy.The coefficients of the rude(a) yield rate were negative in both regression models it suggested that part of the Malthusian theory and the neo-Malthusian theory were nominate. The main criticism of the theories was the theories did not account the raise in the technology, and in that respectby the food supply has increased faster than arithmetic progress. The science and technology in China has evolved tremendously in the past thirty historic period since the One-Child Policy has implemented. Therefore, the Malthusian theory and the neo-Malthus ian whitethorn not be applicable in the modern world today. This view has been condescend in the work of Galor and Weil (1999, pp.150-154). Moreover, part of the Revisionism theory was support. The theory suggested that the population growth does not hinder the population growth in dense compass and China is a densely populated country.In regression model 2, lagged crude get rate was used. Since the population will enter the manpower at the aged of 16, the crude pedigree rate was tested for the collision on the GDP per capita. The variable was set in motion insignificant to explain the changes in the GDP per capita. The results suggested that China was not facing the lessen return of labour.Since the crude birth rate is not cor cerebrate with the growth of GDP per capita, there is no population theory which is totally back up in the outline of China. Although China was not facing a Malthusian dynamic of overpopulation and lessen return of labour dynamics, it is essentia l for the implementation of the One-Child Policy. If the population was not control guide and continue to increase, China would soon have to face the problems associated with overpopulation and diminishing return to labour.In conclusion, the decision of the implementation of the One-Child Policy in 1979 was supported in this seek. Although the One-Child Policy has shown to have benefitted the economic growth of China in the short term and 16 years long term, it may have an adverse effect in the very long term. The one child now has to support his/her two parents and four grandparents. Therefore, the implementation of the One-Child Policy was supported in 1979 entirely the decision of the continuation of the One-Child Policy is to be remained uncertain.6.2 Limitations of the educationThe results obtained in the query only give a suggestion of the implementation of the One-Child Policy. There are certain limitations in the interrogation. A digit of measurement issues need to be addressed are stated below.As a proxy of the command level, it is conk out to use the average number of schooling as it gives a clearer picture of the education level of the population. Unfortunately, the National means of Statistics of China has not recorded this variable for the period, 1979 2007.As a proxy of the living standard, it is better to use the gross fixed capital formation per capita as it accounts the position that the living standard increases faster than the population growth. Unfortunately, the size labour forte was also not recorded. (Gross fixed capital formation per capita = Gross fixed capital formation/ Workforce)There are several missing figures in the data. The missing figures usually occur in 1980 to 1985. Although interpolation has used to direct the missing data in between, the lack of data may function to inaccuracies in the results.There may be inaccuracies in the figures of the crude birth rate. Many illegal birth of baby girls occurred due to t he conventional son preference in China. The actual crude birth rate should be higher as the illegal births were not recorded.The lack of the sample sizes may also allow to inaccuracies in the results which determine the long term effect of the One-Child Policy. There are only 13 observations after the adjustments, which may lead to no significant variable being detected even if there is a one present. Furthermore, only the labour market was accounted to determine the long term effect of the One-Child Policy in this study. The 4-2-1 problem can not accounted in the study, as the policy has only implemented for 31 years and it is not long enough for the summary of this effect.Although the implementation of the One-Child Policy was mostly supported in the results, it may not be supported in different areas of China. The average crude birth rate was used in the research, and thus the decision of the One-Child Policy may not be supported in individual cities. E.g. Urban areasThe of ficial numbers from the National self-assurance of Statistics of China may have exaggerated the growth of GDP The economic expert Chinas dismal statistics (Anon., 2009), which will lead to the overestimation of the effect of the One-Child Policy.6.3 Potential Areas of StudyThe research provides general study on the implementation of the One Child Policy in China. It can be make headway studied to chance on a deeper level of understanding of the policy. As mentioned in the previous section, the analysis of the implementation of the One-Child Policy may differ from cities. The number of births has been largely reduced, and the population started to age. Urban areas may have started to face the shortage of labour and problems related to demographic aging. This suggestion has been supported as the citizens in Shanghai were boost to have two children per family since 2009 (Xie Linli, 2009). Furthermore, the action createn in Shanghai has supported my conclusion in the research whic h China was not facing the diminishing return of labour. The relationship between the GDP per capita and the crude birth rate in different cities can be revised by cities. The population theories will possibly be supported by the analyses in different cities. Same methods and tests can be used and the data required can also be found in the official website of the National Bureau of Statistics of China. Since the One-Child Policy was criticised to have violated the human rights, the results obtained from this further research will aid the find suggestions to other family planning in China. If the crude birth rate was found positively correlated with the economic growth in different cities, whatever policy suggestions can be made. For example, more births can be allowed or only the spacing between births is controlled. Alteration of the policy will possibly bring advantages to China. The criticisms of the family planning may reduce the number of female infanticides may also be reduce d, and may lead to the further increase in the economic growth in China.The One-Child Policy has forever and a day been a source of controversy since its execution there are many a(prenominal) more potential studying areas. In the analysis chapter, the growth in the number of tertiary enrolment in China was found insignificant to explain the economic growth. Another independent variable such as the percentage of people that have finished secondary schools can be used as a proxy of the education level. More research can be done on the relationships between the One-Child Policy, education and crude birth rate. The relationship between the variables can also be found using the conviction series OLS regression. Although the education level of the people was increased by the One-Child Policy, there are other factors that affect the education level. As the education level of the people increased, the desire of improving the qualities of life may increase and the desire having children may decrease. As a result, the crude birth rate may not only be affected by the One-Child Policy, but also the increased level of education. The results obtained can help to recognize if the effect of the One-Child Policy was over auspicated in the present study, and at the same time help to gain a better understanding of the economic growth in China.Further study could include analysing the sex ratios in China. It has forever and a day been an active debating topic. The One-Child Policy has affected to the sex ratio due to the traditional son preference in China. The sex selective abortion has led to the excess births of males and the unbalance sex ratio in China. A research has been done on the unbalanced sex ratios, and the researcher, Hesketh states that, males under the age of 20 exceeded females by more than 32 gazillion in China, and more than 1.1 million excess births of boys occurred. Since there are 32 million more males than females, some of the men will be unable to g et married and have a family. Fewer births will be occurred as there are less married couples, and therefore the unbalanced sex ratios may also decrease the crude birth rate of the population. Moreover, the children may have to take care even more elderly rather than only their own 2 parents and 4 parents, but their relatives as well. The GDP per capita may be negatively affected by the sex ratios. Same as the suggested research in the previous paragraph, the results obtained can help to notice if the effect of the One-Child Policy was overestimated in the present study.The last suggestion of the potentials area of study is establish on the past of the One-Child Policy effects on the economic growth, and to estimate the future effect on the economy. The changes in the variables which are affected by the One-Child Policy can be predicted. The least squares regression can be used to estimate the lines of best fit. Based on the predicted changes of the variables, the growth of GDP in t he future can then be estimated. Further analysis on the implementation of the One-Child Policy can be done along with the results obtained.The Peoples Republic of China seems to have faith in the influences on the One-Child Policy. As to how deep the influence of the One-Child Policy, only time can tell.